✨ Collective Predictions 2026
Introducing the Time Under Tension Collective and their generative AI predictions for 2026
Every year, we ask the talented Collective to do something simple and difficult:
Ignore the noise. Name the shift. Say it plainly.
Collective Predictions 2026 brings together operators, builders, strategists, and creatives to surface the changes that are already underway, but not yet fully acknowledged.
Below is a selection of five of the 10 Collective Predictions 2026, grounded in the signals we’ve witnessed in 2025.
Software stops being a product
Apps are becoming situational. In 2026, software assembles around intent, completes the job, then dissolves. The “product” isn’t the interface; it’s the momentary capability. If apps are generated on demand, then roadmaps, backlogs, and “features” get replaced by outcomes. The winners don’t ship apps, they ship reliable execution.
Collective voices
Steph predicts… Vibe coding grows up: AI dev agents become the default way web products get built, letting non-technical leaders ship faster/cheaper and making hand-coding feel like a legacy craft.
2025 signals
Agents can now act through a virtual computer - OpenAI’s ChatGPT Agent operationalises end-to-end task completion by operating a computer + tools, not just answering questions.
Replit Agent positions “tell it what you want, it builds it” as mainstream productised workflow.
Organisations become agentic
Agents don’t just help individuals; they become workforce units. Organisations start redesigning roles, metrics, and operating models around human + agent collaboration. The org chart becomes a capacity map: humans for judgment, agents for throughput. Companies that can’t govern mixed workforces will ship chaos at scale.
Collective voices
Julie reflects… companies re-architect around agents as first-class contributors—blending People + Tech leadership, merging KPIs/performance systems, and pushing humans up into strategy/creativity/relationships.
2025 signals
Workday launching an “Agent System of Record” to govern/manage/optimise AI agents alongside people is a strong proof that core HR infrastructure is being rebuilt for a mixed human + agent workforce.
OpenAI positioning “ChatGPT agent” as something that plans and executes complex workflows end-to-end (using a virtual computer) signals agents moving from copilots to throughput-producing workforce units.
AI becomes an advertising surface
When the assistant becomes the interface, the interface becomes the monetisation layer. “Helpful” is about to be quietly tuned by revenue. The clean chat UI gets messy. Answers become inventory. And neutrality will become something you pay for.
Collective voices
Josh Rowe predicts… the AI invoice arrives: chat interfaces clutter with ads/affiliates, distribution crushes subscription rivals, and AI becomes invisible plumbing dominated by vertical specialists.
2025 signals
Ads are now being inserted directly into the “answer surface” (e.g., Google’s documented Ads in AI Overviews), turning responses into monetizable inventory.
When AI summaries appear, clicks drop sharply (Pew found users clicked traditional results in 8% of visits with an AI summary vs 15% without), showing “answers” cannibalising referral traffic.
Your customer is an agent
Shopping shifts from humans browsing to agents negotiating the path: discovery → evaluation → purchase. Decisions happen upstream, invisibly. Marketing becomes machine-readable. The new shelf space is the agent’s shortlist, and you don’t get a second page.
Collective voices
Basil predicts… commerce shifts upstream as agents discover/evaluate/buy for us—making machine-readable product truth more valuable than branding, and AI discovery the new battleground.
2025 signals
OpenAI’s ChatGPT is moving beyond recommendations into transactions with Instant Checkout and an Agentic Commerce Protocol, making the “new shelf” the agent’s shortlist rather than a human browsing results pages.
Google is baking the assistant into the browsing layer via agentic checkout in Search (and related “AI does the legwork” flows), collapsing discovery → comparison → action into a single agent-mediated journey.
Being human becomes the differentiator
As synthetic content saturates the world, “real” becomes valuable again, not as nostalgia, but as a competitive advantage. Human judgment, accountability, and presence become premium signals. Authenticity becomes an asset class.
Collective voices
Cat warns… 2026 is when the “benign progress” myth breaks: backlash, hollowed judgment, deepfakes/regulation—making responsibility, taste, and real-world presence the scarce trust signals.
2025 signals
Regulation is hardening “real vs synthetic” into compliance: the EU AI Act (Article 50) requires disclosure for deepfakes and certain AI-generated public-interest content, pushing accountability and provenance into default expectations.
Provenance is becoming platform plumbing: Content Credentials (C2PA) are moving from standards to distribution + capture infrastructure (e.g., Cloudflare preserving credentials, Sony in-camera authenticity), making provable authenticity a premium signal.
Above were a selection of the full Collective Predictions 2026, which you can read more of here:
The Time Under Tension Collective
This time last year we introduced you to the Time Under Tension Collective, a group of high calibre professionals, each bringing a unique perspective to the generative AI landscape and are part of our growing community of AI experts. This year we’re delighted to introduce you to the expanded Collective team.
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A handful of Gen AI news
Here are five of the most interesting things we have seen and read in the last week;
We officially launched the Time Under Tension AI Academy and welcomed Simon Hillier to the team as our new Head of AI Learning.
As if NotebookLM wasn’t already amazing enough, new features have recently launched, including “Slide Deck”, powered by Nano Banana Pro - turning your research into kick ass, beautifully designed decks
OpenAI released its State of Enterprise AI report, highlighting industries and use cases where AI adoption is greatest
Another bit of OpenAI news, the Walt Disney Company and OpenAI reach landmark agreement to bring beloved characters from across Disney’s brands to Sora
Runway released the Gen 4.5 video generation model
